TAIPEI (TVBS News) – With local elections fast approaching, many people have wondered whether the new political map will affect cross-strait relations for the better or the worse.
According to Kwei-Bo Huang, associate professor of Diplomacy at NCCU College of International Affairs, the results of the elections will have a limited impact on cross-strait affairs.
“The result of these local elections will not change the Taiwan government’s policy toward mainland China because Taiwan’s policy toward China has been fixed,” he said. “That is to make it as quiet as possible and probably have no or little interest in resuming mutual dialogue.”
As for mainland China, the scholar expects mainland China to “wait and see” before deciding whom to support. “Wait and see who is going to represent the DPP. And who is going to represent the KMT,” he added.
After almost six years of soaring tensions, however, the Democratic Progressive Party could also decide to move faster on its agenda in case of a major electoral win.
“A big win for the ruling party, of course, would encourage President Tsai Ing-wen and her national security team to maintain their original thinking about mingling with mainland China,” he explained. “However, I think such a big win seems less likely.”
Huang expects that the China factor in the 2024 presidential election will either come from eventual support for the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) or the counter-China cards played by the ruling party.
“If the KMT is going to have a big win over the DPP in the coming future,” he remarked. “Then probably many people in Taiwan will think twice about whether or not we should go for more peaceful and prosperous relations with mainland China through some possible mutual dialogue, like in the past.”
“So, I think the local elections matter, but maybe it doesn’t matter as much as some people have expected,” he concluded.
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