TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan and China have a complex relationship recently brought into the spotlight due to Taipei's ardent push for democratic values and Beijing's firm belief in autocratic control.
The United States is also involved in this dynamic, according to TVBS commentator Wenchi Yu, who asked two foreign policy experts what's next for cross-strait relations in the latest episode of TVBS Meeting Room.
Soaring U.S.-China Strategic Rivalry
Daniel Russel, vice president for International Security and Diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), argued that there is no correlation between the deterioration of U.S. and China relations and the soaring cross-strait tensions.
"The U.S.-China's strategic rivalry is a negative factor and cross-strait relations for no other reason than it removes an important reason for Beijing to show restraint," he said.And it casts the U.S. actions towards Taiwan as part of an attack against Beijing's core interests in the eyes of the mainland."
The former U. S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs also thinks there is a "fundamental mismatch between Xi Jinping's vision for China in the world and the values in the system that the United States and other Western countries have built in Taiwan embraces."
"The U.S.-China strategic rivalry is a negative factor and cross-strait relations for no other reason than it removes an important reason for Beijing to show restraint," he added. "And it casts the U.S. actions towards Taiwan as part of an attack against Beijing's core interests in the eyes of the mainland."
According to Chien-min Chao, chair and dean of the College of Social Sciences Chinese Culture University, however, the problem is that the "U.S. doesn't mind other countries or people in this part of the world challenging China."
"That has, that is, tip the balance, you know, so right now the independence movement, people, I think they are encouraged," continued the former deputy minister of the Mainland Affairs Council. "And they continue the efforts to stoke the tensions, which has made the situation much worse."
Deterioration of Cross-Strait Relations Despite the 2015 Ma-Xi Summit
The deterioration of cross-strait relations came as a major surprise, especially given the meeting between former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou and Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2015. This unprecedented diplomatic gesture heralded a new degree of cross-strait cooperation — yet here we are today.
The Ma-Xi summit in November 2015 was the first time the two sides had an opportunity to meet face-to-face. "So I think that was a good opportunity for the two sides to get something out."
"They did get something out," he continued. "They agreed to set up a telephone hotline. So in the case of any crisis, they can reach the other side. They also agreed to continue the talks on a cross-strait, free-trade agreement. That was extremely important."
Russel agreed that the Ma-Xi summit was important "symbolically" as a hopeful sign of continued progress in cross-strait relations. "We certainly hoped that it would lead to an ongoing constructive dialogue," he recalled.
"But at the same time, we weren't naïve and didn't have too many illusions about what to expect from the PRC," he added. "We understood that Beijing might be trying to put its thumb on the scale, so to speak, in the elections."
"I also remember that President Ma made important points about rejecting Beijing's attempt to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, rejecting military pressure and economic exclusion, and calling for patience, which certainly is still badly needed," he explained.
But once you remember, the world doesn't stand still. This is a different era now. And the status quo isn't frozen in time. It's a constant balancing act for the parties involved in the stability of cross-strait relations.
Future Regional Stability Ahead of 2024's Respective Presidential Races
In light of the varied political climates in Taiwan and the United States, Wenchi Yu questioned how recent U.S. midterm elections, and local elections in Taiwan would shape trilateral relations over the next four years leading up to 2024's respective presidential races.
Whenever there is an election in other democracies in the western world, Chao remarked that there is also China bashing, especially in Taiwan, where China bashing is the most severe.
"Nearly 70% of Taiwanese people don't believe the Chinese would attack, and nearly 70% of the Taiwanese people believe the United States would come to help," he went on. "It's on this public opinion backdrop that the ruling party has been able to do the things they have been doing."
Russel, on the other hand, warned against "convincing ourselves that the threat from the mainland is simply a crying wolf that they can't that people can admit. It may be that people have trouble imagining the mainland attacking."
"The lesson from the midterms in both Taiwan and the United States is that predictions about election outcomes are unreliable," he added. "And you certainly cannot draw a straight line from the results of local elections or U.S. midterms to what will happen two years later in elections for national office."
Still, the participants in this episode of TVBS Meeting Room agree that cross-strait relations will remain tense with China, ratcheting up pressure and using actions by the Taiwan side and the U.S. as a pretext to claim it's just responding.
The role of the U.S. will continue to be to help to reduce the risk of conflict, and reduce the coercion, the pressure on Taiwan, while also protecting the democratic system and helping to protect the rights, liberties, society, the economy that the people of Taiwan have built up over the decades.
