TAIPEI (TVBS News) — As China continues its rise as a superpower, analysts worldwide have expressed concern over the “new normal” of increased military activities in the Taiwan Strait.
Speaking at the 7th annual "China's Power: Up for Debate" on Thursday (Nov. 17) organized by the Center For Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), U.S. officials, scholars, and commentators discussed the core issues underpinning the nature of Chinese power that could lead to a major crisis or conflict in the next year or two.
"Following the Chinese Communist Party Congress last month, we know more about Xi Jinping's plans is doubling down on authoritarianism at home and abroad," U.S. Senator Edward J. Markey said in a pre-recorded keynote.
The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy, remarked that "China's actions undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait."
"If there is a military attack on Taiwan, it will be those living in Taiwan who will bear the brunt of the consequences," he continued. "Therefore, we need to be intentional about the risks we take when crafting U.S. policy and ensure that risks have a tangible reward for Taiwan's security."
According to a CSIS poll conducted during the debate, 7 out of 10 respondents believe that we’re not going to see a crisis or conflict in the Taiwan Strait in the next year or two, at least not caused by the increase in military activities.
Still, China's new normal in the Taiwan Strait raises concerns about an eventual U.S.-China or China-Taiwan crisis or conflict in the next year or two, said Dr. Bonny Lin, director of China Power Project, CSIS.
"Maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is in the interest of all parties, in the Indo-Pacific region and it has been the policy of the United States," argued Dr. Alexander Huang, director of International Affairs, Kuomintang (KMT).
"A military conflict before January 2024, may disrupt and possibly lead to a cancellation of the election in Taiwan, and extend the DPP administration (time) in power," he warned. "And this is a factor that China needs to think about"
More importantly, the prospect of war in the Taiwan Strait could result in Republican and Democratic candidates jumping on the anti-China bandwagon in 2024, according to Huang. This great power competition could make the situation even more "unpredictable."
"This creates a dynamic for serious crisis or war," remarked John K. Culver, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, who lamented that U.S. actions would create the "conditions for a war that it nominally seeks to deter."
"I think the trigger would be, the policy positions of those candidates (…) to drop strategic ambiguity and recognize Taiwan as a separate entity from China and commit thoroughly to Taiwan's military defense," he said.
The analyst argued that it is not just camera shots of U.S. officials on the tarmac of an airport that could trigger a crisis, but rather signals from within the U.S. government of the abandonment of the basis for diplomatic relations.
Despite defending oppostive views during the debate, Culver and Huang agrued that the implications of war in the Taiwan Strait are wide-ranging and could significantly impact the global political landscape. It is essential to keep an eye on these developments as they unfold to better understand the potential consequences.
