TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Following Taiwan's 9-in-1 elections, TVBS Commentator Yu Wenchi spoke with Kuo Chenlung, deputy managing editor of the United Daily News, and David Sacks, research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to analyze the results of the elections.
The analysts remarked that the Democratic Progressive Party's supposed strategy of "resisting China and protecting Taiwan" failed.
Although the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) won big in the elections, this momentum may not last in the 2024 presidential election, they said, warning that the Democratic Progressive Party's defeat may arouse a sense of crisis. The DPP supporters might regroup and have a comeback for the 2024 presidential elections.
"A lot of analysts in the United States and internationally were far too quick to write off the KMT. And I think that was a flawed analysis, clearly, now we have seen that was a flawed analysis," David Sacks said.
The Kuomintang's big victory also marks one of the most significant setbacks in the history of the DPP.
"I noticed that the DPP tried to campaign on the so-called, "resist China, protect Taiwan" slogan, but it did not work. It had been very successful in 2020 when Tsai Ing-wen ran for her reelection. I think the scare tactics for the DPP is not effective in a sense," said Kuo.
The results of the nine-in-one elections will likely affect the layout of the 2024 presidential election. The question is: can the KMT continue this momentum?
"Although the KMT is winning, too many people will try to take the credit and seek nomination for the presidency, which will divide the party. KMT had lost in 2020, and it is most likely they will lose again in 2024," Kuo explained.
"On the contrary, the DPP, maybe losing in the election, would help the DPP create a sense of crisis, and help to consolidate, and make sure that Vice President William Lai will win the nomination and subsequently, hopefully, win the election in 2024."
Sacks noted that "for 2024, it will be difficult for the KMT to translate these victories on the local level into victory on a national level in a presidential election. But I think we see clearly; the KMT still has broad support across Taiwan."
According to Sacks, from an American perspective, the United States is not leaning towards the KMT or the DPP but wants to see cross-strait relations being handled responsibly.
"A cross-strait dialogue is preferable to no dialogue because that reduces the chance of miscalculations by either side of the strait," he went on. "I think the United States wants to be assured that there will be a continued commitment to raising defense spending, regardless of what party comes to power; the U.S. wants to see continuity in that regard," said Sacks.
Both commentators agreed that for the upcoming 2024 general election, The KMT must explain its cross-strait policy, and it will be difficult to please both Beijing and the Taiwanese voters simultaneously. The issue of the Taiwan Strait will still be the key to winning the 2024 elections.
