DPP win may prompt escalated activities from Beijing
Following the victory of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan’s presidential election, a report by the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) suggests that Beijing might escalate activities in gray zone areas. The report highlights Taiwan’s increased geopolitical prominence and its pivotal role in semiconductor manufacturing, making the stability of the Taiwan Strait a key concern for the U.S. and other Western nations. The report also notes that Vice President Lai Ching-te won the election by over 40% of votes, breaking the trend of switching ruling parties every eight years since direct presidential elections were implemented in 1996. The victorious DPP aims to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses and relations with like-minded nations while resisting negotiations with Beijing. Additionally, the party seeks to reduce Taiwan’s trade dependency on China and strengthen ties with significant partners such as Australia, Europe, and Japan. With no party securing a majority in the legislative assembly, the DPP faces a ＂minority government and majority opposition＂ scenario, which could hinder the government’s legislative and budgeting process and impact Taiwan-U.S. ties. Despite the election, cross-strait relations and regional tensions are unlikely to undergo fundamental changes. Taiwan’s vital position in semiconductor manufacturing and geopolitics ensures its continued rise in importance, with the U.S. and Western nations playing a crucial role in maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait. The upcoming U.S. presidential election in November is expected to significantly impact the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle, and a potential return of former President Trump to the White House might please Beijing, according to the report.