Experts warn of rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait 

TAIPEI (TVBS News) — As President Lai Ching-te celebrated his first National Day in office on Wednesday (Oct. 10), experts predicted a day earlier in Washington an uptick in Chinese military activity aimed at Taiwan following his official address. Analysts emphasized that Beijing's strategy will likely focus on military intimidation and signaling Taiwan regarding reunification.  

Increased Military Intimidation Expected

Dan Blumenthal, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and former senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia at the U.S. Department of Defense, shared insights during the "Xi Jinping’s Search for a Lasting Legacy" forum at the AEI on Oct. 9. "The Chinese will definitely continue their military intimidation process after Taiwan's National Day, and they are going to continue with their hostility to President Lai Ching-te," he stated.

Blumenthal elaborated on the potential implications of Chinese military drills, suggesting their primary objective is to intimidate Taiwan and demonstrate its isolation from the international community. "I can't anticipate what the drills will be, but the point is to intimidate Taiwan and to try to cut Taiwan off," he told TVBS News. He reassured that the United States has various options to support Taiwan and counteract the notion of isolation.

Dean Cheng, a senior adviser at the China Program of the U.S. Institute of Peace, echoed Blumenthal's sentiments. He noted that Chinese military aircraft are expected to approach the median line of the Taiwan Strait, albeit not to the aggressive extent witnessed during former U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei in 2022. Cheng explained that this behavior would be a way for Beijing to communicate its expectations to Taipei without escalating tensions.

U.S. Elections May Influence China's Approach
Cheng further emphasized that the outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections could significantly impact China's stance toward Taiwan. He pointed out that President Lai's policies mirror those of former President Tsai Ing-wen, focusing on increased political and economic independence without overtly provoking China. "The next U.S. president will be a key factor in determining the future dynamics between Washington, Taipei, and Beijing," Cheng remarked.

With Lai now in office, the situation remains fluid as Taiwan navigates its relationship with China and the United States. Both Blumenthal and Cheng agree that Beijing's military posturing is unlikely to decrease anytime soon, especially given the evolving political landscape and Taiwan's assertive stance under Lai's leadership. As Taiwan commemorates the founding of the Republic of China, the world watches closely, aware that the geopolitical tensions in the region are poised to escalate in the coming months.