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Polls show tight race between presidential candidates

Reporter Vivian Hsiao
Release time:2023/05/28 20:06
Last update time:2023/05/28 20:06
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TAIPEI (TVBS News) — TVBS conducted a comprehensive poll following New Taipei City Mayor Hou Yu-ih's nomination as the main opposition party, Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate, on May 17. 

The poll received approximately 1,500 valid responses within two days, providing an inside look into public sentiment after months of negotiations between Foxconn Founder Terry Gou and the KMT fell through, and Hou was drafted instead. 

 

The poll asked respondents which candidate they would support: the incumbent ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te, KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih, or Taiwan People's Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je. 

The TVBS survey indicates that 30% supported Hou, 27% supported Lai, 23% supported Ko, and 20% remained undecided following the announcement of Hou and Ko's nominations. 

However, a deeper analysis of the poll results reveals a more nuanced picture. 
 

Among different age groups, TPP candidate Ko Wen-je appears to have the most support among individuals aged between 20 and 49. On the other hand, Hou Yu-ih garners more support from slightly older age groups.

Among those aged between 50 and 59, 36% expressed their support for Hou, while Lai Ching-te trailed slightly with 34% support. 

In the 60 and above age group, 35% favored Hou, Lai had 27% support, and Ko only had 6%.

Regarding regional preferences, Hou leads the polls in northern Taiwan, including the greater Taipei area, Hsinchu, and Taoyuan. 

On the other hand, Lai enjoys more support in the southern parts of Taiwan, such as Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung. 

Although Ko lags behind in this aspect, he still managed to secure support from 8% of DPP supporters and 11% of KMT supporters.

Taiwan's presidential election is scheduled for January 13, 2024. With 81% of those polled indicating their willingness to vote that day, all three candidates must exert effort to secure more votes. 
 

Ko must maintain his support among young voters while appealing to older generations. Lai needs to gain more traction in northern Taiwan, while Hou must do the same in the south. 

More importantly, subsequent surveys conducted by other Chinese-language outlets between April 26 and May 21 have already suggested a decline in public support for the KMT candidate over the past month, indicating indecision among middle-of-the-road voters. 

This finding shows that, with nearly 8 months remaining, the presidential candidates must focus on engaging with undecided voters to secure the highly sought-after position.

Taiwan Affairs

The Taiwan Briefing

#Taiwan#poll#2024 presidential election#KMT#DPP#TPP#Hou Yu-ih#Ko Wen-je#Lai Ching-te

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