TAIPEI (TVBS News) — December highlighted how sharply Taiwan's population is shrinking, with official figures showing births continuing to trail deaths, even as legislators moved to broaden access to assisted reproductive technology. That same day, Taiwan's legislature, the Legislative Yuan (立法院), passed a draft amendment to the Assisted Reproduction Act (人工生殖法), expanding access to reproductive services.
Despite the policy expansion, signs of demographic decline remain stark. At Taipei Kangning Hospital (台北康寧醫院), the maternity ward now stands empty, and experts say this reflects Taiwan's entry into what they describe as a "fertility panic period." Dr. Yin Chang-sheng (尹長生) of Kangning Hospital said the empty ward presents a striking contrast to earlier decades, particularly 1976's Year of the Dragon, when more than 420,000 babies were born nationwide. In Chinese tradition, Dragon Years are considered especially auspicious for childbirth.
Yin attributed the sharp decline in birth rates to young people's reluctance to marry and raise children, citing soaring housing prices, stagnant wages, and the high cost of childcare. As of November 2025, Taiwan's monthly births have hovered between 8,000 and 9,000, placing annual totals below 120,000. Yin warned that the figure could fall under 100,000 in the coming years if current trends continue.
Official data underscores the severity of the situation. According to the Ministry of the Interior (內政部), only 7,946 babies were born in November 2025, representing a 36.72 percent decline from the same month in 2024. Deaths in November also exceeded births by nearly 7,000, extending a 59-month streak in which deaths have consistently outpaced births.
While increased childbirth subsidies could offer some relief, Yang argued that Taiwan must also consider immigration as a long-term strategy to stabilize its population structure. Immigration, he said, will be essential to sustaining economic growth and social welfare systems.
Taiwan's experience mirrors broader trends across East Asia. Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reported a 3.1 percent decrease in births in the first half of 2025 compared with the previous year. South Korea recorded a slight increase in births in 2024, though it continues to have the world's lowest fertility rate. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a population decline of 1.39 million by the end of 2024, marking the third consecutive year of population contraction.
The demographic downturn has raised concerns among labor groups. Yang Shu-wei, secretary of the Taiwan Labor Front, warned that a shrinking workforce could intensify labor shortages while increasing caregiving burdens in an aging society. The combined pressures of declining birth rates and rapid population aging, he said, risk creating long-term imbalances in the labor market.
Projections from Taiwan's National Development Council suggest the island's population could fall to around 17 million by 2070 if current trends persist, placing Taiwan among Asia's fastest-shrinking societies. High housing costs, low wages, and childcare pressures continue to deter many young people from marriage and parenthood.
Experts have called on the government to strengthen childcare support systems and adjust industrial and social policies to ease the challenges facing younger generations. Some scholars argue that fertility rates are no longer driven solely by economic conditions, pointing instead to shifts in social values and gender roles.
Harvard economist and Nobel laureate Claudia Goldin has emphasized that declining birth rates are closely tied to women's expectations of respect and equality in the workplace. Whether women pursue traditional family roles or career paths, Goldin argues, reproductive choices cannot be separated from broader questions about gender norms and social support. As Taiwan confronts its demographic future, policymakers face mounting pressure to look beyond short-term incentives and consider more comprehensive and innovative solutions to ensure long-term population sustainability.
