WASHINGTON (TVBS News) — Last week's events, including Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's meeting with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and China's meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, heightened tensions on the global stage as political leaders formed new partnerships and distanced themselves from others.
TVBS Commentator Wenchi Yu assessed cross-strait relations and U.S.-China competition with global political risk consultant and Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer in the latest edition of TVBS Meeting Room.
During the live stream interview on Tuesday (April 11), Bremmer pointed out that Tsai's meeting with McCarthy may seem like a big deal according to U.S. media, but there are far more pressing global issues.
He added that as China's diplomatic, economic, and military response to the trip was incremental compared with when former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, it "make[s] the point that a lot is happening on the global stage right now, and the Americans aren't driving as much as they used to."
Meanwhile, Macron's comments during the China meeting urging the EU to avoid getting caught up "in a crisis that is not their own" have sparked global debate.
Despite rising U.S.-China tensions, businesses may not choose sides or subscribe to the warring mentalities between the two big powers. "The challenge that Taiwan is going to have is that TSMC is becoming politicized," Bremmer said.
As one of the world's most "strategically important" companies, TSMC could impact the current status quo regarding its importance if it vehemently builds fabs in the U.S. and other allied countries, leaving China to develop its semiconductor manufacturing plants. With this change, Taiwan could become "more vulnerable to economic and military escalation," the global risk consultant explained.
The Eurasia Group president also gave his top 3 predictions for the world in the next 18 months, indicating that Russia will become even more dangerous as one of the most potent "rogue states" for the West.
In addition, he believes former U.S. President Donald Trump will also likely get the Republican Party's nomination for the 2024 presidential election, meaning the GOP would need to align with him.
Bremmer believes this could lead to an even more divisive U.S. than in 2020 when Trump faced Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton.
Last but not least, the consultant predicts that China's global influence will continue to expand, and the EU may struggle to maintain unity against Russia while pursuing economic opportunities with China.
