TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan's export industry's performance this year has yet to see high numbers. However, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) estimates that the growth in private consumption will exceed 5%, taking the lead in the country's economic performance.
The reasons for this are the number of tourists visiting Taiwan will likely increase next year, along with the expected increase in basic wages and the distribution of corporate dividends.
The tourism industry hopes that business will return to normal with the upcoming surge in travelers going abroad. However, experts believe more will be needed to boost Taiwan's economy.
Huang Chih-jie, an assistant manager of a travel agency business department, said: "In the past few days, I think that most people in our country will probably come first to gather information and then wait and see. Most of the inquiries are for after the Chinese New Year. There will be more itineraries after the spring."
The DGBAS estimates that Taiwan's domestic consumption growth rate could reach 5.48%.
According to Asian Development Bank's latest report, although Asia's GDP this year and next will both be revised downwards, from 4.3% to 4.2% this year and from 4.9% to 4.6% next year, Taiwan's GDP valuation will remain unchanged at 3.4% this year and 3% next year.
This year, the performance even exceeded mainland China's 3%.
However, experts say that for Taiwan to rely on domestic consumption alone to offset the sharp decline in exports would not be enough.
China's possible economic recovery in the first half of the year and a possible increase in demand from Europe and the United States in the second half of the year will all affect Taiwan.
According to Sun Ming-te, director of the Macroeconomic Forecasting Center, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research: "For Taiwan, the production of petrochemical rubber and plastics is more related to (mainland China), as well as steel and metal machinery."
He added: "These industries should benefit from China's opening in the first half of next year. In the second half of the year, we have to wait until the European and American economies recover, the end of the Russia-Ukraine War, and the end of inflation in the United States; there will then be better development at this time."
The central bank estimates that domestic GDP will be 2.91% this year and will only be 2.53% next year. This means that the economic outlook is highly unpredictable, and both domestic demand and the export industries still have to make steady progress.
