TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan experiences two to three magnitude 6 earthquakes annually, a frequency significantly higher than most regions worldwide, the Taiwan Earthquake Research Center (TEC, 台灣地震科學中心) reported on Wednesday (April 2). The center urged residents to focus on continuous preparedness rather than specific predicted dates, stressing that natural disasters remain inherently unpredictable despite scientific advances in monitoring seismic activity.
During a briefing focused on the recent Myanmar earthquake, TEC officials addressed growing public concerns about predictions of a major seismic event in Asia allegedly set for July 5. They explained the notable discrepancies in reported magnitudes of the Sagaing earthquake, attributing variations to different measurement methodologies employed by regional authorities. While the internationally recognized moment magnitude scale (Mw) placed the earthquake between 7.7 and 7.9, Thailand's MLv measurement method calculated it significantly higher at 8.2. Scientists noted that the quake's shallow depth — less than 30 kilometers beneath the surface — contributed to both its destructive power and heightened public interest in its impact.
The research center's presentation also delved into "seismic gaps" — regions along known active fault lines that have remained suspiciously quiet for extended periods, often preceding major earthquakes. Taiwan's complex geological landscape, crisscrossed with numerous fault systems, makes identifying these potential danger zones particularly challenging, according to TEC experts. They highlighted notable historical examples, including the Chelungpu Fault (車籠埔斷層) that remained dormant before rupturing in the devastating September 21, 1999 earthquake, and the Central Range Fault (中央山脈斷層) prior to the 2022 Chishang quake (池上地震).
Public speculation regarding a potential July 5 earthquake has intensified in recent months, fueled largely by predictions found in Japanese mangaka Ryo Tatsuki's work, "The Future I Saw" (我所看見的未來). The illustrated story portrays a significant seismic event striking East Asia on July 5, 2025, with projected impacts across Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the Philippines. TEC officials emphasized that while understanding historical patterns remains valuable, predictions based on non-scientific sources should be approached with appropriate skepticism.
