Analysis | Trump’s America First could impact Taiwan ties

TAIPEI (TVBS News) — U.S. President Donald Trump's second inaugural address on Monday (Jan. 20) boldly championed his "America First" agenda, resonating globally and setting the stage for policies poised to ripple across Asia. Taiwan, though not directly mentioned, stands at the forefront of potential impact. The implications range from trade and energy challenges to shifts in military dynamics and national sovereignty, potentially reshaping Taiwan's strategic and economic landscape.

Trade and Tariffs: A Double-Edged Sword

Trump underscored a new era of economic nationalism, declaring, "Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens." This declaration, while aimed at bolstering American industry, poses a complex challenge for Taiwan. As a leading semiconductor producer deeply intertwined with China's economy, Taiwan might find its intricate supply chains disrupted and its export-driven growth threatened. The island's economy, tightly knitted into the global fabric, faces the pressing task of navigating these tariff tremors. It must seek new export avenues and innovate to maintain its economic resilience amid China's post-pandemic struggles.

Energy Policy and U.S. Manufacturing
Trump's energy agenda, promising to "drill baby drill," signals a return to fossil fuels, heralding a resurgence in U.S. manufacturing. This could foster closer manufacturing ties with Taiwan, yet it also risks accelerating Taiwan's brain drain. Increased Taiwanese investment in the U.S. could exacerbate domestic talent shortages, as more skilled workers seek opportunities abroad. With a declining birth rate and an aging population, Taiwan confronts the dual challenge of retaining talent and attracting foreign investment while striving to invigorate its economy through innovation.

Military and Foreign Policy: More Strategic Ambiguity
On the military front, Trump's rhetoric of "defeating America's enemies" and being a "peacemaker and unifier" suggests a nuanced shift in U.S. foreign policy that could affect Taiwan's security dynamics. Taiwan's military continues to seek modernization and deeper cooperation with the U.S., yet persistent delays in receiving U.S. military hardware hinder its defense preparedness. These challenges emphasize the critical need for robust strategic partnerships to ensure Taiwan's security amid shifting geopolitical tides.

America First and National Sovereignty
Trump's call to reclaim sovereignty, with the assertion that "Our sovereignty will be reclaimed. Our safety will be restored," hints at a potential retrenchment from international engagements, leaving Taiwan pondering its defense assurances. As U.S.-China-Taiwan relations navigate these uncertain waters, Taiwan must carefully balance its strategies amid deteriorating cross-strait interactions and diminishing leverage over Beijing. The stakes are high, with regional stability hanging in the balance.

Reclaiming the Panama Canal: A More Assertive Stance
The President's bold pledge to reclaim the Panama Canal, alleging Chinese control, reflects a more assertive U.S. stance. "And above all, China is operating the Panama Canal. And we're taking it back," he declared, potentially setting a precedent that could influence cross-strait dynamics. This approach underscores a shift towards transactional politics, raising questions about international norms and Taiwan's regional stability.

Inward Focus: Southern Border and National Emergency
Trump's declaration of a national emergency at the southern border, with the intent to "halt illegal entries," signals a pivot towards domestic priorities over global engagements. For Taiwan, this inward focus could mean increased pressure to independently navigate its challenges, including maritime disputes. As U.S. engagement potentially wanes, Taiwan must deftly manage its growth, societal challenges, and democratic integrity.

While the speech left specifics on implementation to the imagination, Taiwan should remain vigilant, closely monitoring these U.S. policy shifts and their potential reverberations across its strategic and economic interests.