TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan's defense forces recently shifted from focusing solely on air and sea protection to bolstering its land-based military.
The shift is likely an outcome of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) wargame predictions which found that Taiwan would suffer significantly in any amphibious invasion attempt by Chinese forces opposed by Taiwan, the U.S., and Japan's militaries.
According to CSIS, an invasion would result in immense losses for those countries involved and leave economic repercussions lingering long after hostilities cease.
The report further predicts that in the case of an invasion from China in 2026, the U.S. will lose up to 20 warships and thousands of service members.
Taiwan would also see a devastated economy, while the Chinese Communist Party would see its power destabilized after failing to launch a successful invasion.
But what would happen if Taiwan didn't have the assistance of the U.S. military?
A non-commissioned U.S. officer, Allen Lin, explained that "under current circumstances, the U.S. assesses Taiwan's naval and air forces to become powerless as soon as a war begins."
"This means the battle will inevitably extend to Taiwan proper, indicating that combat on land will become the key," he said.
Hsu Chih-hsiang, a research assistant at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, added, "I think that the CSIS report centers on asymmetric warfare in recent years."
The core of asymmetric warfare emphasizes ammunition and firepower rather than using large platforms such as warships or fighter jets to carry such weapons.
Accordingly, the U.S. will likely reduce sales of warplanes and warships sales to Taiwan.
Hsu pointed out that the official direction of "asymmetric warfare" could "emphasize our precision weapons, especially longer-range ones and anti-ship missiles; the army may need to strengthen them further."
As for Taiwan's army, which has always lagged in tactical defense, the U.S. military will now place it under strict scrutiny, carefully inspecting the training and the equipment used.
Even so, the CSIS report emphasized that the best thing is preventing a war from breaking out, meaning Taiwan needs to strengthen its deterrence further.
