TAIPEI (TVBS News) — There are less than two days to go before the 9-in-1 local elections in Taiwan.
As the world watches with bated breath, many are wondering what impact this local election could have on Taiwan's 2024 presidential election, as well as what lays in store for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition party, Kuomintang (KMT).
Speaking to TVBS World Taiwan on Wednesday (Nov. 23), Tunghai University Political Science Professor Albert Chiu stressed that the local elections' impact on policy changes in Taiwan will be relatively small.
Still, if the ruling party wins big this time around, what may be President Tsai Ing-wen's move between now and the 2024 elections? According to Chiu, the middle ground may be the way to go.
This means Tsai may want to try and extend an invitation to have a conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Though it could mean possible criticism from within her own party, the move could likely benefit Taiwan and the DPP in the future.
"The reason is very simple: it's safer, and (will) stabilize cross-strait relations," Chiu said.
Chiu pointed out that the local elections are also a pivotal moment for the main opposition KMT. In particular, the performance of certain candidates could determine who the party wishes to back as their 2024 presidential election candidate.
The professor listed out three main contenders: KMT chairman Eric Chu, Taipei City mayoral hopeful Chiang Wan-an, and incumbent New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi.
According to Chiu, Chu's bid could see supporters who have "authoritarian nostalgia," and who may place less emphasis on the value of democracy.
Meanwhile, for Chiang, Chiu believes the time may be too soon. However, if he is chosen by the KMT, he would likely be extremely popular among middle class citizens with higher educational backgrounds. However, his illustrious background may be to his detriment.
"We all know that his great grandfather was Chiang Kai-shek," Chiu said, adding that combined with his grandfather, Chiang Ching-kuo, both former leaders were "more or less considered authoritarians." This stands in sharp contrast with Taiwan's strong stance in democracy today.
On the other hand, incumbent New Taipei City mayor Hou You-yi is looking to be most likely choice as the KMT candidate for the presidential election.
Hou's biggest obstacle may be going head-to-head with exiting Taipei City mayor Ko Wen-je as he has also made his intentions clear for the 2024 presidential race.
Even so, Taiwan's political parties are taking precautions and closely observing the local elections to plan their next steps for the big one 2 years later.
