TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Nine days ago, Taiwan's weather agency warned that this year's typhoons would form farther from land but arrive stronger. On Thursday (July 9), that prediction is bearing down on the island in the form of Typhoon Bavi (巴威) — a severe storm with a wind field stretching 380 km (236 miles) that has spent days gathering strength over warm Pacific waters.
The phenomenon has a name: the "long-track" storm. The engine driving it is El Niño, the Pacific climate pattern that shifts where typhoons are born — and how much time they have to grow into monsters.
The Ocean's Hidden Conveyor Belt
El Niño occurs when waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific warm significantly above normal. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (中央氣象署), or CWA, confirmed on June 30 that sea surface temperatures had crossed the 0.5-degree threshold — and that the pattern would likely persist through spring 2027.
"During El Niño years, typhoons tend to form farther to the southeast, more distant from East Asian landmasses," Huang Chun-Hsi (黃椿喜), director of the CWA's Weather Forecast Center, said at a June 30 briefing. "They have more time to develop over warm ocean waters, so their intensity tends to be stronger. The proportion of severe typhoons is therefore higher."
Think of it as a runway: the farther a typhoon has to travel, the more warm ocean it crosses. Warm water is fuel. More fuel means a bigger, stronger storm. Bavi's runway was exceptionally long, according to Taiwan weather broadcaster Tai Li-Kang (戴立綱).
The tropical disturbance that became the storm originated near the International Date Line — the imaginary boundary in the mid-Pacific where the calendar date changes, roughly 8,000 km (5,000 miles) east of Taiwan. It is a rare starting point for storms that reach the island. "It's because of the El Niño year," Tai told TVBS. "The position of the high-pressure system enabled it to travel nearly 10,000 km (6,200 miles) to the western Pacific."
Bavi: A Textbook Long-Track Storm
Typhoon Bavi is Exhibit A. On June 30, CWA Section Chief Liu Yu-Chi (劉宇其) noted a tropical cloud cluster developing roughly 4,000 km (2,485 miles) east-southeast of Taiwan, near the Marshall Islands.
That system became Bavi. By Thursday morning, it had intensified into a severe typhoon — Taiwan's strongest classification — with maximum sustained winds of 184 km/h (114 mph), equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane. Its gale-force wind radius spans 380 km (236 miles).
"This typhoon is currently a severe typhoon, and its range is very large," CWA forecaster Lin Po-tung (林伯東) said Thursday. "When it affects us, it will likely still be a severe typhoon or at the upper limit of a moderate typhoon. The impact will be very serious."
Private meteorological service WeatherRisk (天氣風險) noted that Bavi has undergone multiple intensification cycles during its journey across the Pacific. Although environmental conditions near Taiwan may cause some weakening, the storm will still arrive large and powerful, the service said.
By the Numbers: 2026's Unusual Typhoon Season
From January through June, eight typhoons formed in the western North Pacific — nearly double the climate average of 4.3, according to the CWA. Only twice before, in 1965 and 2015, had a typhoon formed every month during the first half of the year.
What Bavi's Track Reveals About Forecast Uncertainty
The CWA expects Bavi's center to pass north of Taiwan on Friday night into Saturday (July 10-11), skirting the northern coast before landfall on China's Zhejiang-Fujian border around midnight Saturday. A sea warning was expected by 2:30 p.m. Thursday, with a land warning possible Friday morning.
But uncertainty remains. "The typhoon's movement speed still has some uncertainty," Lin cautioned. Meteorologist Wu Der-Rong (吳德榮) noted that while the most likely track resembles historical storms like Typhoon Nelson (1985), paths over Miyako Island or into eastern Taiwan cannot be ruled out.
Looking Ahead: A Season of Vigilance
Bavi is likely the first of three to five typhoons expected to approach Taiwan in 2026. With El Niño conditions forecast to persist — and potentially intensify — through autumn, the CWA has warned that the proportion of severe typhoons could be elevated.
The agency is urging residents to complete typhoon preparations before Friday. Waves along Taiwan's east coast have already reached 5.5 meters (18 feet), and the CWA has issued long-wave warnings for northern and eastern shorelines.
The long-track phenomenon that made Bavi dangerous is not a one-time event. It is the signature of an El Niño year — a pattern that, for Taiwan, means trading frequency for ferocity. ◼
>>> TYPHOON ADVISORY: A typhoon is approaching or affecting Taiwan. Before arrival: Secure loose objects, stockpile 3 days of emergency supplies, charge devices, and familiarize yourself with your evacuation route. During a typhoon: Stay indoors, away from windows. Do not visit beaches, harbors, or coastal areas for wave-watching. Avoid rivers and low-lying areas. Be alert for strong winds, heavy rainfall, landslides, and falling debris. After passage: Do not go outside immediately (the storm eye may create a temporary calm); watch for downed power lines, avoid floodwater, and check for gas leaks before re-entering buildings. Emergency contacts: General emergencies 119/1999 | Maritime emergencies 118 | Police or disaster reporting 110/119 | Power outages 1911 | Road conditions 1968.
>>> REAL-TIME TYPHOON PATH TRACKING | 即時颱風路徑追蹤:
Monitor the typhoon's projected path, intensity, and timing through these official sources:
01 | Central Weather Administration (CWA, 中央氣象署) — Taiwan's national weather service
→ Typhoon warnings & path forecasts: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/P/Typhoon/TY_NEWS.html
→ Interactive typhoon map: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/P/Typhoon/TY_TRACK.html
02 | Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) — U.S. Navy's Pacific storm tracking facility
→ Tropical warnings: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
03 | Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA, 気象庁) — Japan's official weather authority
→ Tropical cyclone information: https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/cyclone/index.html?lang=en
04 | Windy.com — Real-time wind and rain visualization
→ Interactive forecast: https://www.windy.com/?24.800,121.000,7
