TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Meteorologist Wu Der-romg (吳德榮) warned Tuesday (Aug. 19) that two separate tropical systems are developing in the Western Pacific, with one potentially threatening Taiwan. The first system, a tropical depression south-southwest of the Ryukyu Islands, will likely strengthen into a typhoon but move northward away from Taiwan, according to Wu's analysis of the Central Weather Administration's (CWA, 中央氣象署) forecast issued at 2 a.m.
The second system, a tropical disturbance south of Guam, presents a more concerning scenario for Taiwan. U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) predictions from 8 p.m. Monday (Aug. 18) suggest this disturbance could develop into a typhoon and track west-northwest to west. Wu cautioned that if this system strengthens, several projected paths indicate a potential threat to Taiwan, including the possibility of direct landfall.
Weather models show diverging predictions for the second system's trajectory. Wu observed that the average path from the U.S. ensemble model directs the storm through Luzon Island in the northern Philippines, while the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model suggests a more northern route through the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines. Wu emphasized the critical need for continued monitoring of this potentially threatening system. ◼
