TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan faces mounting tensions with China, according to leading political scientists who offered complementary views on the future of cross-strait relations on Wednesday (May 14). National Taiwan University (NTU, 台灣大學) Professor Chang Teng-chi (張登及) warned in an interview with TVBS that Chinese cyber infiltration and economic influence operations have shaped Lai's defensive posture. Cheng Kung University (NCKU, 成功大學) scholar Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁) suggested Taiwan must strengthen international alliances as Xi Jinping's potential fourth term could further deteriorate the already precarious regional stability.
Chang also drew sharp distinctions between former President Tsai Ing-wen's (蔡英文) approach to cross-strait relations and the current administration's stance. While Tsai grounded her policies in both "Taiwan's Constitution and the Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area" (兩岸人民關係條例), a key legal framework for Taiwan-China interactions, Lai has notably omitted references to the latter legislation. Chang observed that U.S.-China relations have deteriorated to their most contentious point in decades, with Chinese President Xi Jinping's (習近平) increasingly assertive posture toward Taiwan shaping Lai's defensive policy orientation. The political scientist expressed concern that cross-strait tensions could further intensify if the Trump administration maintains its confrontational China policy.
NCKU Professor Wang Hung-jen further identified fundamental continuities beneath the stylistic differences between Tsai and Lai's approaches. Both leaders, Wang noted, have consistently prioritized Taiwan's sovereignty claims and maintained skepticism toward the "1992 Consensus," a disputed understanding of cross-strait relations promoted by Beijing. Wang traced the hardening of Tsai's second-term policies to the 2019 Hong Kong extradition bill protests, which heightened Taiwan's security concerns. Lai's presidency, however, unfolds amid unprecedented U.S.-China strategic competition, coinciding with Chinese President Xi's campaign for an unprecedented fourth term that could intensify security threats and espionage activities against Taiwan.
To mitigate these developing pressures, Wang advocated for Taiwan to deepen its relationships with democratic partners such as Japan, South Korea, and Eastern European nations, particularly through civilian sector collaborations that might prove more resilient to political interference. The professor emphasized that practical cooperation can persist even during periods of heightened geopolitical tension. His analysis comes as cross-strait relations have noticeably deteriorated in the year since President Lai's inauguration on May 20, 2024, with Beijing increasing military exercises around the island and diplomatic isolation efforts. ★
