TAIPEI (TVBS News) — A Cathay Financial Holdings (國泰金) national economic confidence survey revealed a significant decline in stock market optimism and risk appetite due to U.S. tariff policies on Monday (April 21). The global economic slowdown has spurred cautious trading among investors, causing short-term volatility in global stock markets, and a drop in both economic outlook and stock market optimism indices.
The "April National Economic Confidence Survey" (4月國民經濟信心調查) also highlighted a decline in consumer willingness for large purchases and durable goods, along with weakened real estate buying and selling intentions. Indices related to economic optimism, expected wage growth, and the job market have plummeted, while inflation expectations have surged, indicating shaken confidence in the economic environment. Several indicators have hit new lows in recent years.
In February, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS, 主計總處) estimated Taiwan's 2025 economic growth rate at 3.14% and inflation at 1.94%. This month's survey shows the public's average growth expectation has dropped to 2.63%, with 62% predicting growth below 3%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations have risen slightly to 2.33%, with 70% anticipating it to exceed 2%, reflecting more conservative growth estimates and higher inflation expectations compared to official forecasts.
Regarding housing prices, 55% of respondents believe their local housing prices rose more than 3% in the past six months. For the next six months, 48% expect prices to rise over 3%, with 11% predicting increases over 10%. The public's outlook on housing prices has weakened over the past year, signaling potential shifts in the real estate market.
