TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Typhoon Bavi (巴威) is bearing down on Taiwan with central pressure of 895 hectopascals, maximum sustained winds of 216 km/h (134 mph), and gusts reaching 270 km/h (168 mph) — numbers that place it among the most powerful storms to threaten the island in recent years. But what do these figures actually mean for residents preparing for a potentially dangerous weekend?
Here is what the data tells us about Bavi's threat level and what to watch for in the days ahead.
The Numbers Behind The Storm
As of 2 p.m. Wednesday (July 8), Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (中央氣象署) reported Bavi's center approximately 1,490 km (926 miles) east-southeast of Taiwan's southernmost point, Eluanbi (鵝鑾鼻), moving west-northwest at 17 km/h (10.6 mph). The CWA classifies Bavi as an "intense typhoon" (強烈颱風), the highest category in Taiwan's three-tier system, requiring maximum sustained winds above 184 km/h (114 mph). Bavi's current sustained winds of 216 km/h (134 mph) exceed this threshold significantly.
The storm's radius tells another critical part of the story. Bavi's Grade 7 winds — the threshold at which outdoor activities become dangerous — extend 380 km (236 miles) from the center. Its Grade 10 winds, capable of causing structural damage, reach 180 km (112 miles) out.
What The Forecast Shows
The CWA projects Bavi will approach Taiwan's eastern waters by Friday, with the most significant impacts expected Friday night through Saturday (July 11). The storm is forecast to pass through waters northeast of Taiwan before making landfall near the Zhejiang-Fujian border in China around midnight Saturday.
Meteorologist Wu Der-rong (吳德榮) of the Meteorological Application and Development Foundation (氣象應用推廣基金會) warned Wednesday that residents should expect "destructive" (破壞性) strong winds in central and northern Taiwan and mountain areas, along with "disaster-level" (致災性) heavy rainfall. The CWA specifically warned that mountainous areas from Taichung northward face the highest probability of "torrential rain or above" (豪雨以上等級).
Wu noted that Bavi's projected path resembles several notable typhoons in Taiwan's history, including Herb (賀伯), Winnie (溫妮), Talim (泰利), and Yangxi (楊希) — storms that either grazed Taiwan's northern coast or made direct contact with the island's northern tip.
What Remains Uncertain
Despite the storm's intensity, significant uncertainty remains about its exact path. The CWA's forecast cone still encompasses half of Taiwan, and Wu said multiple scenarios remain possible: the center could pass through Miyako Island to the northeast, graze Taiwan's northern waters, or shift southward for a direct landfall on the east coast.
Lin Hsiao-ru (林孝儒) of WeatherRisk (天氣風險), a private meteorological firm, said Wednesday that Bavi is expected to maintain "at least medium-strong typhoon level" (中強颱等級) at closest approach. The storm's large size means impacts will be felt even if the center remains offshore.
Early Warning Signs
Signs of Bavi's approach are already visible. The CWA reported Wednesday that long-period ocean swells of 1.5 to 1.7 meters have been observed at Lanyu (蘭嶼) and Taitung. The agency has issued swell warnings for Keelung's northern coast, the entire eastern coastline including Green Island and Lanyu, the Hengchun Peninsula, and Matsu. Land strong wind advisories at the yellow level are in effect for Miaoli, Kaohsiung, Pingtung, and Taitung counties beginning Thursday (July 9) afternoon.
The CWA also warned that foehn winds — hot, dry downslope winds — may develop in the Hualien-Taitung Valley and Kinmen on Friday.
What To Watch
Both WeatherRisk and the CWA urged residents to complete typhoon preparations by Thursday, as Wednesday and Thursday represent the final days of calm weather before Bavi's arrival. Lin said residents should monitor whether the CWA issues formal sea and land typhoon warnings in the coming days. The storm's track, intensity, and speed remain subject to change. ◼
>>> TYPHOON ADVISORY: A typhoon is approaching or affecting Taiwan. Before arrival: Secure loose objects, stockpile 3 days of emergency supplies, charge devices, and familiarize yourself with your evacuation route. During a typhoon: Stay indoors, away from windows. Do not visit beaches, harbors, or coastal areas for wave-watching. Avoid rivers and low-lying areas. Be alert for strong winds, heavy rainfall, landslides, and falling debris. After passage: Do not go outside immediately (the storm eye may create a temporary calm); watch for downed power lines, avoid floodwater, and check for gas leaks before re-entering buildings. Emergency contacts: General emergencies 119/1999 | Maritime emergencies 118 | Police or disaster reporting 110/119 | Power outages 1911 | Road conditions 1968.
>>> REAL-TIME TYPHOON PATH TRACKING | 即時颱風路徑追蹤:
Monitor the typhoon's projected path, intensity, and timing through these official sources:
01 | Central Weather Administration (CWA, 中央氣象署) — Taiwan's national weather service
→ Typhoon warnings & path forecasts: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/P/Typhoon/TY_NEWS.html
→ Interactive typhoon map: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/P/Typhoon/TY_TRACK.html
02 | Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) — U.S. Navy's Pacific storm tracking facility
→ Tropical warnings: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
03 | Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA, 気象庁) — Japan's official weather authority
→ Tropical cyclone information: https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/cyclone/index.html?lang=en
04 | Windy.com — Real-time wind and rain visualization
→ Interactive forecast: https://www.windy.com/?24.800,121.000,7
