TAIPEI (TVBS News) — The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) reported on Monday (Feb. 10) that Taiwan's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, 經理人指數) reached 48.7 in January, marking a ten-month low and halting two months of expansion. Seasonal factors contributed to the 2.1-point drop, the largest in four months, affecting sectors like transportation, electronics and optics, and basic raw materials.
Among the five PMI components, new orders and production shifted from expansion to contraction while inventory continued to contract. Employment and supplier delivery times, however, showed expansion. The outlook index for the next six months rose 5.6 points to 51.7, indicating expansion. Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明), president of the institution, cautioned that this survey does not reflect former President Trump's latest tariff remarks.
Lien noted that the impact of Trump's tariff war might appear in post-February data, especially since Taiwan's semiconductor trade surplus with the U.S. has grown to nearly US$70 billion (around NT$2.29 trillion). He emphasized that potential U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors could have varying effects depending on the rates and methods, with intermediate goods facing more significant impacts.
Lien analyzed, pending further details, Taiwanese semiconductor exports largely serve American companies, and tariffs could raise U.S. product prices. The institution mentioned that businesses are concerned about China's subsidy policies and U.S. reconstruction demand, with no significant rise in new orders and production despite a noticeable increase in key material prices.
