Taiwan’s economy rebounds after 15-month contraction

TAIPEI (TVBS News) — The National Development Council (NDC，國發會) confirmed on Wednesday (Feb. 5) the beginning of Taiwan's 16th business cycle, with the economy now on an upward trajectory.

The NDC reported that Taiwan's 15th Business Cycle indicators bottomed out in April 2023 after a 15-month contraction, marking a total cycle duration of 86 months. 

Since the second quarter of 2023, Taiwan's economic growth rate has steadily increased, indicating a shift towards expansion. The council highlighted that the coincident indicators hit their lowest in April 2023 and have risen for 20 consecutive months, accumulating a 12.6% increase. This upward trend reflects a recovering economy poised for further growth.

The economic signal score reached its nadir at 10 points in February 2023 but showed marked improvement by June 2024, displaying a vibrant red light (booming). This improvement underscores a clear recovery trend. The council initiated research in August 2024 to identify the trough of the 15th cycle, confirming its peak in January 2022 and the trough in April 2023.

Global challenges, including the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, and interest rate pressures, have impacted Taiwan's foreign trade and production performance since 2022. These factors contributed to a negative growth rate of 3.47% in the first quarter of 2023. However, the gradual global economic recovery, the rise of AI and emerging technologies, and government cash distribution have bolstered consumer spending, driving Taiwan's economy upward from the second quarter of 2023.