TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Weather expert Lin Te-en predicts an over 80% chance of a La Niña phenomenon in 2024, which could mean fewer typhoons in the Northwest Pacific, but those that do form may be closer to Taiwan.
Lin's social media post cites an April study by the U.S. National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. The study indicates an over 80% chance of an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral from April to June 2024, followed by the onset of La Niña.
The study forecasts a 60% chance of La Niña from June to August 2024. By September to November, this probability increases from an initial prediction of 77% to 82%. Therefore, the likelihood of a La Niña event is increasing overall.
Analyzing past events, Lin explains that when La Niña occurs in Taiwan, rainfall during the summer and the following spring decreases. However, the northeastern and eastern regions see increased rainfall during the fall. Temperatures from winter to the following spring are also lower than usual.
