Stimson Center predicts result of US-China war over Taiwan

TAIPEI (TVBS News) — The Stimson Center published an article Friday (Oct. 27) warning that a potential war between the United States and Beijing over Taiwan could result in crippling losses for both sides. 

Written by Robert A. Manning, a distinguished fellow at the Washington-based think tank, the article titled "Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan the Most Likely Scenario?" highlights that a unilateral declaration of independence by Taiwan might trigger both ground and aerial assaults from Beijing.

The article quoted a military simulation by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), another Washington think tank, which showed that a joint defense effort from the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan could repel a Chinese invasion but at devastating costs, including the loss of tens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of troops.

The war would also affect the U.S.'s global standing, hurt Taiwan's economy, and cause significant damage to China, possibly even destabilizing the Chinese Communist Party's rule should the takeover fail.

Manning pointed out that China's aerial superiority, with a ratio of 1,900 to Taiwan's 300, could include airstrikes, missile and cyber attacks aimed at decimating Taiwan's defenses and crippling its communication and critical infrastructure.

Simulations by the Center for a New American Security predicted a rapid escalation of war over Taiwan, including China potentially bombing U.S. military bases in Japan and Guam and a reciprocal U.S. attack on Chinese bases and navy. China might even demonstrate a nuclear strike off the coast of Hawaii.

Manning believes that any concrete steps taken towards official independence by Taiwan could serve as a catalyst prompting Beijing's decision for forceful unification.