U.S. economic policy 結果共12筆

Explore insights from Matthew Goodman, former director of international economics at the White House National Security Council staff, on U.S. economic policy changes, the impact of the MAGA movement, and the focus on China and the semiconductor industry in an exclusive TVBS News interview.

Donald Trump’s potential return as president could reshape the global economy, including concerns over tariffs, inflation, and the U.S.-Taiwan relationship, as industry leaders react.

Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute, discusses Taiwan’s evolving role in global policy, the need for dedicated think tanks, and the U.S. policy landscape.

Explore how U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is rallying global support to maintain peace and deter China’s unilateral actions, amid criticism of the Biden administration’s foreign policy.

Taiwan’s export performance reached a historic high from 2021 to 2023, but experienced a 9.8% decline in 2023 compared to the previous year, according to the Ministry of Finance. Despite this setback, exports to the U.S. continued to soar with a 49.7% year-on-year increase, while exports to countries covered by Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy also saw significant growth. However, exports to mainland China decreased to 35.2%. Taiwan’s total export tally for 2023 amounted to US$432.48 billion, ranking behind only 2022 and 2021. The demand for communications and electronic products during the pandemic-induced work-from-home trend boosted Taiwan’s exports. The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research predicted significant international trade growth in 2024, which would benefit export-oriented economies like Taiwan. In December 2023, Taiwan’s exports to the U.S. reached $8.49 billion, and exports to southern countries surged by over 50%. However, due to the limited coverage of free trade agreements (FTAs), many traditional Taiwanese industries chose to restructure risks and production in Southeast and South Asia. The return of Taiwanese businesses and the expansion of local factories after the U.S.-China trade war, as well as global economic circumstances, significantly impacted the decline in 2023 exports. The Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) estimated the first-quarter export volume for 2024 to be around US$106.1 billion, which is an improvement compared to the same period in 2023, but a 10% decrease from 2022.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) has stated that Beijing is working to isolate Taiwan globally in response to criticisms made by Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih regarding Taiwan’s stagnant free trade agreements (FTA). During a presidential policy presentation, Hou criticized the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for its unsatisfactory economic performance and the lack of progress in bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. MOFA emphasized Taiwan’s commitment to global economic integration and bilateral economic cooperation, but highlighted the interference from China. MOFA believes that Taiwan’s ability to participate effectively in economic integration depends on its strength and global connections, especially as countries like the U.S. and European nations reassess their economic risks with China. MOFA urges all Taiwanese, regardless of political affiliation, to unite and enhance cooperation with like-minded nations in the face of external challenges.

Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih challenges the effectiveness of President Tsai Ing-wen’s foreign policy, questioning its impact on Taiwan-China communication, severed relations with former allies, extended military service, and increased risk of Chinese fighter jets breaching Taiwan’s airspace. The three presidential contenders, including Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je, discuss U.S.-Taiwan relations and their stance on President Tsai’s policy. Hou questions DPP’s handling of tainted politics during their time in power and highlights his support for the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). He also addresses concerns over cross-strait flight operations and employment difficulties for Chinese students in Taiwan. Hou pledges to follow the Constitution of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and maintain administrative neutrality without relying on any side.

DPP vice-presidential candidate Hsiao Bi-khim emphasized the importance of strength in maintaining Taiwan’s status quo and preventing bullying. She highlighted the current state and prospects of U.S.-Taiwan relations, noting that U.S. policy has consistently supported maintaining the status quo and opposing the use of force. Hsiao mentioned that under Xi Jinping’s leadership, the U.S. has shifted to view China competitively but does not seek a new Cold War. She emphasized critical issues of peace, security, and economic cooperation in Taiwan-U.S. ties, including the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade. Hsiao underscored Taiwan’s determination to defend itself, citing the national defense budget and military modernization reforms. She referred to herself as a ＂cat warrior＂ and advocated for government reform and a balanced international stance. Hsiao urged that Taiwan not become a divisive issue between American political parties and emphasized the need for a proper balance amidst U.S.-China competition to ensure Taiwan’s safe and steady progression.

TSMC chairman Mark Liu’s upcoming retirement in 2024 has led investment experts to suggest that the semiconductor giant should slow down the progress of its new manufacturing facility in the United States. Industry analyst Jonah Cheng believes that TSMC’s policy direction will remain unchanged under the leadership of chief executive C.C. Wei, who is expected to succeed Liu as chairman. Cheng also proposes maintaining a dual leadership structure to cultivate successors from various backgrounds. Speculation suggests that Liu’s retirement may be linked to potential investment challenges in the company’s U.S. expansion. In response to these challenges, Cheng recommends a deceleration in the construction of TSMC’s second U.S. plant. He also highlights the need to assess the current downturn in the car market and economic outlook before proceeding with the German plant focused on automotive applications. Cheng suggests that the Japanese facility could be an optimal choice due to labor and power shortages in Taiwan, as well as cultural similarities and strong government support from Japan. TSMC’s primary obstacle, according to Cheng, is maintaining its leadership position in the semiconductor industry, especially after surpassing Intel. Additionally, the cyclical nature of the industry and the potential opportunities presented by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) applications pose further challenges for the company.

Taiwan’s central bank has announced that it will maintain its interest rate for the third consecutive time in its quarterly board meeting. The decision was influenced by price changes and the need to balance stabilizing consumer prices with sustaining economic growth. Despite rising consumer prices due to natural disasters, the central bank remains optimistic and expects the inflation rate to drop below 2% next year. Forecasts for Taiwan’s GDP growth rate in 2023 are more positive, projected to reach 3.12%. This is supported by increasing private consumption, particularly in tourism and dining, as well as the central bank’s expectation of a global export increase to stimulate local investment and drive economic recovery. In contrast to the Federal Reserve in the U.S., Taiwan’s central bank stated that its monetary policy approach would be adjusted gradually based on the country’s economic conditions. Despite high housing prices, the central bank has decided against imposing stricter measures or withdrawing from market intervention to avoid further impact on the property market.

During her tenure as Taiwan’s representative to the U.S., DPP vice presidential candidate Hsiao Bi-khim emphasized that Taiwanese people were treated with dignity and respect, rejecting any notion of subservience. She acknowledged the need for a flexible approach to diplomacy given Taiwan’s unique situation, which can range from soft to firm. Hsiao candidly admitted to setbacks and grievances, but highlighted her team’s tireless efforts to overcome obstacles and gain widespread support and respect. Despite the challenges, the confidence, encouragement, and backing from Taiwanese people made her role worthwhile. Hsiao also emphasized the importance of Taiwan’s foreign policy objectives, such as garnering international support and promoting democratic and economic achievements.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) responded to allegations from the Kuomintang (KMT) that DPP vice presidential candidate Hsiao Bi-khim was excessively pro-American. Chen Shi-kai, spokesperson for DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te’s campaign office, criticized the KMT for its lack of understanding of economic trade issues and Taiwan-U.S. relations. The KMT, led by legislator candidate Hsu Chiao-hsin, accused Hsiao of being subservient to the U.S. during her time in Washington, citing a classified communication log documenting a bilateral meeting discussing the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden. Chen defended Hsiao by highlighting recent milestones in Taiwan-U.S. cooperation, such as the signing of the Taiwan-U.S. 21st Century Trade Initiative and efforts to resolve double taxation issues. Chen criticized the KMT candidate for illegally disclosing classified documents for political gain and called for an explanation of the motives and authenticity of the disclosure. This defense by the DPP spokesperson reflects the tensions leading up to Taiwan’s presidential elections, with U.S.-Taiwan relations remaining a significant political issue. The political drama highlights the intensity of Taiwan’s electioneering, where U.S. ties and Taiwan’s global economic positioning are crucial issues for voters. The impact of these debates on public opinion remains to be seen as Taiwan prepares for the polls.