TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Cathay Financial Holdings (國泰金控) sharply raised Taiwan's 2025 economic growth forecast to 7.4% from 4.5%, citing surging AI demand as the key driver. The major financial conglomerate announced the revised forecast at its fourth-quarter economic outlook conference Monday (Dec. 15). Cathay Financial Holdings, one of Taiwan's largest financial institutions, highlighted the unexpected surge in AI demand as crucial for export growth and supply chain investment. The upward revision marks a significant shift in economic expectations for the island.
Professor Hsu Chih-chiang (徐之強) emphasized the essential role of AI infrastructure's energy supply in Taiwan's economic development next year at the conference. Taiwan's exports to the U.S. accounted for over 30% from January to November, while exports to China and Hong Kong comprised about 26%, indicating sustained AI investment growth. Cathay Financial Holdings adjusted its 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual growth rate to 1.7% from 1.8% and estimated the 2026 inflation rate at 1.6%.
Cathay Financial Holdings predicts a 2026 economic growth rate of 3%, with an 80% probability of falling between 1.5% and 4.5%. The financial conglomerate noted that stakeholders should closely monitor the impact of the AI sector and the challenges posed by energy supply. Taiwan's economic outlook remains tied to global AI demand and the island's ability to meet energy infrastructure needs for expanding tech manufacturing. ◼ (At time of reporting, US$1 equals approximately NT$31.2)
