TAIPEI (TVBS News) — The global coffee market is bracing for a potential price surge due to extreme weather conditions and tariff measures proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Analysts suggest these combined factors could significantly drive up international coffee bean prices in the coming months.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) anticipates consumers will face rising coffee prices from the latter half of this year through 2026. This trend is expected to reduce affordable options for coffee drinkers worldwide.
Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has suffered severe weather impacts that have tightened global supply and affected Taiwanese coffee businesses. Graham Liao (廖國明), chairman of a coffee business, explains that frost damage in Brazil has significantly reduced supply, elevating futures prices and pushing up costs for alternative products.
Lu Yu-heng (盧昱衡), an analyst at President Futures (統一期貨), notes that coffee prices doubled between last September and February, climbing from approximately US$2 to over US$4 per pound. This dramatic increase has forced Taiwanese retailers to adjust their pricing strategies.
In February, Starbucks Taiwan implemented price increases of NT$5 on select beverages. Similarly, Louisa Coffee (路易莎咖啡) raised prices on certain drinks and coffee beans by NT$5 to NT$10, passing some of the increased costs to consumers.
Futures analyst Lin Chang-hsin (林昌興) suggests coffee bean prices might stabilize or decline if Brazil experiences improved weather conditions and global supply chain issues are resolved. However, Lin also expressed concern that Trump's proposed tariff measures could further elevate international coffee bean prices, placing an additional financial burden on consumers.
The evolving situation in Brazil and international trade policies will likely continue to influence the coffee market. Industry experts advise consumers and businesses to remain vigilant about potential price changes in the coming months.
