TAIPEI (TVBS News) — The increasingly complex interplay between Washington, Beijing, and Taipei faces new uncertainties as trade tensions escalate, according to a leading expert on cross-strait dynamics. Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), a Taiwan-China relations scholar, detailed the evolving trilateral relationship during the "Bellweather Forum" (北威論壇), a policy discussion platform, on Friday (April 18). Chang pointed to former President Trump's aggressive tariff policies as a destabilizing force that has created growing instability in Taiwan-U.S. relations.
The expert outlined three critical challenges now facing Taiwan amid this shifting landscape: fundamental geopolitical realignments, evolving American strategic priorities regarding its allies, and the far-reaching consequences of Washington's comprehensive tariff policies on Taiwan's export-dependent economy and international supply networks. Chang warned that Trump's escalating confrontations with China over trade and technology could transform Taiwan itself into a flashpoint, with particular vulnerability for TSMC (台積電), Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing giant and a crucial global technology supplier.
Looking toward 2025, Chang presented four essential indicators he termed "safety references" that will be crucial for evaluating stability across the Taiwan Strait. These benchmarks include the continuation of high-level diplomatic dialogue between Washington and Beijing, the strength of communication channels and mutual trust between American and Taiwanese officials, efforts to prevent dangerous miscalculations by government authorities on either side of the strait, and possible shifts in Taiwan's legislative composition and policies.
The analyst drew a sharp contrast between different American approaches toward Taiwan's strategic technology sector. During President Biden's administration, Chang observed, Washington maintained separation between technology policy and broader Taiwan issues, exemplified by the substantial $6.6 billion subsidy package offered to TSMC. This stands in marked contrast to former President Trump's approach, which Chang characterized as targeting both China and Taiwan in interconnected trade and technology conflicts, forcing Taiwanese companies to adapt to America's regional containment strategies throughout Southeast Asia. ★
