TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan's economic landscape displayed mixed signals in January, according to a survey released by the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (台經院, TIER) on Tuesday (Feb. 25). The manufacturing sector's business climate index rose for the third consecutive month, while the service and construction sectors experienced declines.
TIER Economic Forecasting Center Director Gordon Sun (孫明德) urged vigilance regarding the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies and potential disruptions from an AI bubble.
The survey revealed that the manufacturing sector's index reached 98.00 points, a monthly increase of 0.82 points. Conversely, the service sector's index fell by 1.36 points to 96.23, and the construction sector dropped by 6.63 points to 101.82. Domestic manufacturing benefitted from AI and high-performance computing opportunities, with tech firms optimistic about the next six months. However, the Lunar New Year holiday reduced workdays, and global market weaknesses, coupled with new U.S. tariffs, tempered traditional industries' outlooks.
Sun noted the U.S. trade deficit, which reached US$1.2 trillion last year, with Taiwan ranking sixth at US$73.9 billion. He suggested Trump's administration might press Taiwan to improve this deficit. Furthermore, Sun highlighted that the recent AI model launch by China's DeepSeek could affect Taiwan's exports if affordable servers and chips gain traction. He emphasized the need to monitor both tariff policies and the AI sector's developments.
Manufacturers expressing pessimism about the current climate increased by 2.8 percentage points, partly due to Trump's influence and the non-peak shipping season of the Lunar New Year. Nonetheless, optimism for the next six months surged by 10.7 percentage points, with many firms prepared to adjust shipments from other regions. This reflects a cautious yet hopeful outlook for the future.
