TAIPEI (TVBS News) — A recent survey from the Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics, 墨卡托中國研究中心), released on Wednesday (Jan. 15), reveals that most China researchers in Europe believe China's diplomatic focus this year will be on strengthening partnerships with non-Western countries. This shift suggests a move away from prioritizing relations with the European Union (EU).
The survey highlights that 70% of Chinese experts predict the most significant development in China's foreign policy will be enhancing ties with non-Western nations, while only 18% think the focus will remain on the EU. Many respondents foresee a deterioration in EU-China relations, especially with major countries like the Netherlands, Germany, and France.
However, Italy may improve its ties with China, and Hungary is expected to deepen its friendship with Beijing. In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, 38% of respondents believe China's support for Moscow will remain consistent with last year, and 23% anticipate increased support. Only 13% expect China to take an active role in mediation.
Despite the expected economic strain between the EU and China, 75% of respondents believe Chinese investments in Europe's electric vehicle industry will rise, responding to the EU's anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese imports since Oct. 30.
Alicia Garcia-Herrero, a senior fellow at Brussels think tank Bruegel, notes that China's economy will face challenges from weak domestic demand and wage cuts, impacting investment and consumption. The survey also indicates that 88% of experts foresee a trade war between the U.S. and China, with 94% predicting increased U.S. restrictions on tech exports to China.
